The custom is about four thousand years old and its failure rate is unusually well documented, which is roughly why opinion splits down the middle. Babylonians made promises during the twelve-day Akitu festival; Romans made pledges to Janus after Julius Caesar's calendar reform in 46 BC fixed 1 January as the start of the year; medieval knights took a peacock vow at year's end. Participation in the modern form rose from around a quarter of people after the Great Depression to 40-50% by the 1990s and 2000s. The research is less flattering. Richard Wiseman's 2007 study of 3,000 participants found that 88% of those who set resolutions failed, and a 2014 report attributed failure to unrealistic goals (35%), not tracking progress (33%) and simply forgetting them (23%). But the same literature contains the case for the defence: people who attempt a change at New Year have been found far more likely to succeed than people attempting the same change at an arbitrary point in the year.